On top of this the amount of jobs that will be created will only be a small fraction of of the 700,000 thousand as claimed by South African president Jacob Zuma.
The latest study on the desirability and viability of fracking in the Karoo called Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) was released by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) and the Council for Geoscience (CGS).
The study follows a recent report by the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf). According to Jonathan Deal, CEO of Treasure the Karoo Action Group (TKAG) he is most satisfied with the scientific integrity of the report. “In the main, the tone of the findings is cautious and very honest about unknown risk accumulation and the unpreparedness of South Africa in technical, legislative, monitoring and infrastructure terms, to manage an activity such as shale gas development (SGD). In many instances the findings dovetail with those of the ASSAf scientists.”
The assessment found that fracking in the Karoo would be associated with approximately 2,575 direct operational jobs in drilling, trucking and power generation with residents of the study area probably able to fill 15% to 35% of these positions initially, increasing over time as training proceeds. This makes a mockery of the 700,000 jobs touted by oil giant Shell and echoed by Zuma.
The environmental assessment was commissioned in February 2015 by the Department of Environmental Affairs with the support of the national Departments of Energy, Mineral Resources, Water and Sanitation, Science and Technology, and Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, as well as the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and Northern Cape Provincial Governments.
Some other key findings include:
– There may be no economically extractable gas.
– There is insufficient information on air quality emissions and concentrations and greenhouse gas emissions in the Karoo to form a reliable baseline against which the future impacts of SGD can be measured.
– The authors cannot categorically exclude the possibility that an earthquake may be triggered by fracking.
– There is not capacity to supply water for SGD from existing local sources. Water availability in the study area is severely constrained.
– Risks of leakage from faulty wellbore linings in the top few hundred metres are a reality.
– The likelihood of spillages on the well-pad or during transport is almost inevitable.
– There will be impacts following the completion of SGD from failed well linings or capping structures on spent production wells.
– Contamination may only arise long after SGD has ceased.
– SGD will generate substantial volumes and new types of waste.
– A major concern is that the roads, pipelines and power lines associated with SGD will result in fragmentation of the landscape.
– Certain areas (EBIS-1) contain extremely sensitive features and are irreplaceable.
– The biggest risk of SGD to agricultural production relates to the competing use and potential contamination of water resources.
– Any intervention that weakens current land-based livelihoods is likely to have a long-term impact on the resilience of both the area and its land users.
– Tourism adds in excess of R2 billion annually to the economy of the study area.
– Local government finances are likely to be put under significant strain.
– People living close to shale gas infrastructure (well-pads and roads) are at risk of negative health impacts through air, water and noise pollution.
– Currently the available information on health issues in the study area is inadequate to form a baseline.
Since the activity of fracking worldwide is relatively new in relation to the time needed to assess long-term health effects, including trans-generational effects, robust scientific evidence is scant.
