These are among the banner headline findings in the second tranche of results from our February 2019 election poll.
According to Gareth van Onselen, Head of Politics and Governance at the IRR, overall, Black voters give negative net satisfaction scores to the ANC government on Economic Growth (-48%); Crime (-31%); Corruption (-33%) and Land Reform (-7%), and marginal positive net satisfaction scores on Education (+5%) and Healthcare (+3%).
Among ANC voters, 51% are “very unsatisfied” with the national government’s performance on fighting corruption – but 47% of them also believe the ANC, rather than the DA or EFF, is best at fighting corruption.
These and other findings about service delivery are contained in a new edition of the Criterion Report, which you can find at www.irr.org.za on the report section.
The first set focus on how satisfied or dissatisfied voters are with the ANC national government’s performance on six core issues (Economic Growth, Crime, Education, Healthcare, Corruption and Land Reform).
The second set focus on which of the big three political parties – the ANC, DA and EFF – voters believe is best placed to deliver on a set of similar core issues (Economic Growth, Crime, Education, Healthcare, Corruption and Basic Services).
The report contains summary tables of the two sets of questions, as well as each individual question on which the summaries are built.
The poll was in the field between 12and 26 February 2019. The sample was fully demographically representative and comprised only registered voters. A total of 1,611 respondents were questioned. The national margin of error is 3.3%.
Supplementing this were two fully demographically representative sub-samples for Gauteng (sample size: 502 registered voters) and the Western Cape (sample size: 405 registered voters). The margin of error for the Gauteng sub-sample was 3.8%, and for the Western Cape sub-sample, 5.9%. The confidence level is 95%. The poll was conducted telephonically.
The banner headline findings are:
1. NATIONAL ANC GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE:
• Among all voters, the ANC national government has a negative net satisfaction score on all of six core issues. On Economic Growth, the ANC national government receives a net negative score of -56%; on Crime it scores -41%; on Education -11%; on Healthcare -13%; on Corruption -45% and on Land Reform -22%.
• The highest net dissatisfaction rate on all issues is recorded among minority voters and DA Voters. Black Voters give negative net satisfaction scores to the ANC government on Economic Growth (-48%); Crime (-31%); Corruption (-33%) and Land Reform (-7%), and marginal positive net satisfaction scores on Education (+5%) and Healthcare (+3%).
• EFF Voters are universally dissatisfied with the ANC national government performance on all six issues, but more sympathetic than DA voters: Economic Growth (DA Voters: -85%, EFF Voters: -79%), Crime (DA -74%, EFF -63%), Education (DA -53%, EFF -16%), Healthcare (DA -57%, EFF -24%), Corruption (DA -77%, EFF -60%), Land Reform (DA -67%, EFF -46%).
• ANC Voters are the most sympathetic to the ANC national government performance, but more dissatisfied than satisfied on three of the six issues: They give net negative satisfaction scores on Economic Growth (-36%); Crime (-16%); Corruption (-22%) and Land Reform (-7%), and net positive satisfaction scores on: Education (+5%); Healthcare (+3%) and Land Reform (+6%).
2. SERVICE DELIVERY PERCEPTIONS:
• Among all voters, across five of the six issues at a national level, the ANC is selected as the party best placed to deliver on that particular issue. The only exception, as a national issue, is fighting corruption, on which a majority of all voters (30.1%) stated that the EFF would do the best job.
• Significantly, in Gauteng, the DA was chosen as best placed to deliver on three of six issues, among all voters: on Economic Growth and Job Creation (34.9%), on Fighting Crime (34.7%) and on Fighting Corruption (33.1%).
• Among Black voters, the ANC emerged as the dominant choice to deliver best on all issues at national and provincial levels, bar three, where the EFF emerged with a majority: Fighting Crime, among black voters in Gauteng (36%) and Fighting Corruption, both nationally (38%) and in Gauteng (38%).
• The DA universally dominated at every level and on every issue among minority voters, all with a very high majority.
3. NATIONAL ANC GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE vs SERVICE DELIVERY PERCEPTIONS – ANC VOTERS ONLY:
• 51% of ANC Voters are “very unsatisfied” with the ANC national government’s performance on fighting corruption. 47% of ANC Voters also believe the ANC is best – out of the ANC, DA and EFF – at fighting corruption.
The IRR will undertake a full political survey every quarter. The next such full quarterly survey will be conducted in April 2019. The IRR’s intention is to publish the results the week before the 8 May 2019 election.