The IRR says, however, this depends on what happened in the last four days before the election, the turnout at the polls and also taking into account the margin of error (of their own survey).
According to the think tank, this year’s election is the most fluid national election to date, in particular with regards to the ANC and EFF, who have traded support one way and the other among around five to eight percent of black voters since September.
It also says Gauteng is set to be hung, barring a last-minute surge from the ANC.
A 5-day moving average
The IRR May Election Poll was in the field between 27 April and 4 May 2019. It was structured as a Tracking Poll, using a Five-Day Moving Average and it covered the national ballot, as well as the provincial ballot in Gauteng, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
The poll also found that the DA should hold the Western Cape relatively comfortably, despite its recent difficulties in the province.
KwaZulu-Natal could be hung, depending on a range of factors.
The DA is marginally up among black voters, but down among among white voters since 2014. The ANC is significantly down among Coloured voters compared to 2014.
The EFF is up significantly relative to 2014. This, says the IRR’s Head of Politics and Governance, Gareth van Onselen, will set up “an interesting dynamic between that party and the ANC over the next five years, for which, as of 4 May, it appears Gauteng will be the first test”.
The IRR says their survey is not a prediction. “It is not possible to precisely predict the election result. We are, however, confident our data is accurate for the period under review. Thus, all this survey can tell you is the nature of the electoral market in the week preceding the election, and suggest where some of the trend lines are headed, with four days to go until the election. As you will see, there is some fluidity in the market, and the last few days will likely see some small movement. If history is a guide, it will be towards the bigger parties. From these numbers, anyone can draw a prediction should they wish. We leave the art of prediction up to you, the public.”