This suggests that the economy may be working its way back into a more solid growth phase, reports SA – the Good News via SouthAfrica.info
The July BETI shows record levels while continuing an upward curve sustained for a number of months now.
“While one ray of sunshine does not make a summer, the fact remains that the BETI has now seen improvements, in real terms, in five out of the last seven months of 2013,” Brad Gillis, CEO for regulated products at BankservAfrica, said in a statement.
According to Gillis, the BETI reflects 84.2-million transactions for July, the highest number of transactions in the life of the index so far, while the nominal BETI represents the highest ever monthly turnover, clearly indicating that South Africans are spending more money in more transactions than a year ago.
Mike Schussler, chief economist at economists.co.za, said that after reaching a low point in March, the BETI has consistently shown strong year-on-year growth, with especially strong numbers for April, June and July.
“The July BETI indicates that the third quarter GDP figures are also likely to be a lot stronger than most people have predicted until now,” Schussler said in the BankservAfrica statement.
“In 2012, the BETI was the first South African indicator to show that the economy was stagnating, and we believe that, in 2013, the BETI is also the first South African indicator to show that the South African economy is finally getting out of its stagnation period – at the very least in the short term.”
The growth in the July BETI numbers is supported by the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which has been above 50 points for four months in a row, indicating that the country’s manufacturing sector is back on a more positive growth path.
New vehicle sales were also up by 7% in July from a year ago, and for the first seven months of 2013, compared with the same period in 2012, were up by 6.8%.
“Other data that has emerged over the last few months confirms a clear positive trend in many sectors,” Schussler said. “Retail sales were much stronger than expected in May, while manufacturing data over the last quarter has really outperformed many expectations.
“Even mining, which was in the doldrums before, is showing increasing production, together with electricity production. For the first time in 15 months the quarter-on-quarter electricity data will not be negative.”
Schüssler added that the South African Reserve Bank co-incident indicator (which is only available up until April) is also showing the first signs of a turnaround in the economy.
“The South African economy has now been growing for 47 months in a row, which is still the second-longest growth performance in many a decade,” he said.