Times live quotes Harvard history professor Niall Ferguson who says the feeling that not everyone benefits from globalisation has brought about another question: Will Julius Malema be the next South African president.
Ferguson spoke in Johannesburg at the Discovery Leadership Summit, a global thought leadership event on issues relating to business, economics, government and science.
According to Ferguson both Brexit and Trump’s wins surprised pollsters and mainstream media. But in South Africa such a populist outcome as Malema for president can be predicted merely by studying South America’s populist presidents. He said there are four things that can predict populist electorate decisions such as Trump for president and leading disenfranchised voters to vote for populist demagogues:
– Increased immigration into the country;
– People perceiving corruption of the elites and political class;
– Growing inequality in a country; and
– Economic shocks and recession.
Populists such as Trump and former South American presidents speak to people, promising to end immigration and improve the economy. At first everything seems fine. However‚ after an initial improvement in the economy‚ things end badly in the same way they did when Argentina and Venezuela elected populist presidents‚ he said.
